Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TBL: 74.5%

BOS: 25.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.90

BOS: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs BOS: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	1	0.57
1	BOS	18	0	0.83
2	TBL	9	1	0.78
2	BOS	22	1	1.31
3	TBL	15	2	1.74
3	BOS	6	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.9 - 2.6