Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 47.8%

BUF: 52.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.10

BUF: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs BUF: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	0	1.34
1	BUF	15	1	1.14
2	WSH	13	0	0.37
2	BUF	19	0	1.48
3	WSH	13	2	1.15
3	BUF	13	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 6 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1