Utah Hockey Club at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 7 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 37.4%

UTA: 62.6%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.24

UTA: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	VAN	UTA
Season SV%	0.000	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	24	17	7	70.8%	2.62	1	-4.38
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	23	19	4	82.6%	1.59	0	-2.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • VAN at home vs UTA: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	VAN 4 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-02-02	UTA 6 - 2 VAN	UTA	UTA
2025-12-05	VAN 1 - 4 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-03-16	VAN 1 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-02-23	UTA 2 - 1 VAN	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	14	0	0.44
1	UTA	12	0	0.69
2	VAN	10	0	0.61
2	UTA	13	0	0.92
3	VAN	8	0	0.54
3	UTA	12	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown