Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 7 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 68.3%

TOR: 31.7%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.55

TOR: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	LAK	TOR
Season SV%	0.913	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	20	14	6	70.0%	2.28	2	-3.72
TOR	Joseph Woll	40	33	7	82.5%	4.42	1	-2.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • LAK at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	LAK 7 - 6 TOR	LAK	LAK
2025-11-13	TOR 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-03-29	LAK 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK
2024-10-16	TOR 6 - 2 LAK	TOR	TOR
2024-01-02	LAK 0 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	22	0	1.58
1	TOR	14	1	0.68
2	LAK	25	1	1.88
2	TOR	9	1	1.03
3	LAK	15	0	0.56
3	TOR	7	0	0.53
4	LAK	5	0	0.40
4	TOR	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 7 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6