🏒 NHLForecasts.com
Data-Driven NHL Predictions & Analytics
2025-26 Season Live
📊 Daily Predictions 📈 Model Performance 🏆 Stanley Cup Odds ⚡ Live Win Probability

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
EDM: 54.3%
VGK: 45.7%
Expected Goals
EDM: 2.75
VGK: 2.93
Total Goals
Median: 4.7
Over 5.5: 39%
Over 6.5: 27%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
StatEDMVGK
Season SV%0.9060.895
Last 5 SV%0.8370.879
SV% vs Opponent——
GAA2.732.50
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • EDM at home vs VGK: 5-3
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-04-04EDM 1 - 5 VGKVGKEDM
2026-03-26VGK 3 - 4 EDMEDMVGK
2026-03-08VGK 2 - 4 EDMEDMEDM
2025-12-21EDM 4 - 3 VGKEDMVGK
2025-05-14VGK 0 - 1 EDMEDMVGK

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
111:43VGKGoal
205:44VGKGoal
208:05VGKGoal
219:26VGKGoal
304:04VGKGoal
316:13VGKGoal

🎯 Shot Chart

Shot chart for Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 1 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.7 - 2.9