Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 6 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 57.7%

NSH: 42.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.37

NSH: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	SJS	NSH
Season SV%	0.896	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	34	28	6	82.4%	4.21	2	-1.79
NSH	Juuse Saros	27	24	3	88.9%	2.72	1	-0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SJS at home vs NSH: 0-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	NSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	NSH
2026-04-04	SJS 3 - 6 NSH	NSH	SJS
2026-03-24	NSH 6 - 3 SJS	NSH	NSH
2025-03-11	SJS 2 - 3 NSH	NSH	SJS
2025-01-23	SJS 5 - 6 NSH	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	9	0	0.53
1	NSH	14	1	1.66
2	SJS	16	1	1.51
2	NSH	12	0	0.45
3	SJS	13	0	0.67
3	NSH	21	1	2.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown