Chicago Blackhawks at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-04-04 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 2 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 68.3%

CHI: 31.7%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.60

CHI: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	SEA	CHI
Season SV%	0.920	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	31	27	4	87.1%	3.90	2	-0.10
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	27	25	2	92.6%	2.51	3	0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • SEA at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	SEA 2 - 4 CHI	CHI	SEA
2025-11-20	CHI 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	SEA
2025-11-03	SEA 3 - 1 CHI	SEA	CHI
2025-03-18	CHI 2 - 6 SEA	SEA	SEA
2024-12-19	CHI 3 - 1 SEA	CHI	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	8	1	0.50
1	CHI	13	0	0.89
2	SEA	14	0	0.70
2	CHI	24	1	1.79
3	SEA	18	2	1.31
3	CHI	10	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown