Minnesota Wild at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 50.2%

MIN: 49.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.04

MIN: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	DET	MIN
Season SV%	0.888	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	20	15	5	75.0%	2.96	3	-2.04
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	24	20	4	83.3%	2.74	2	-1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DET at home vs MIN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	DET 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	DET
2026-01-22	MIN 4 - 3 DET	MIN	MIN
2025-02-25	MIN 2 - 3 DET	DET	MIN
2025-02-22	DET 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	DET
2023-12-27	MIN 6 - 3 DET	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	10	0	0.31
1	MIN	11	0	0.45
2	DET	11	0	0.64
2	MIN	15	2	1.62
3	DET	22	2	1.80
3	MIN	12	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown