Florida Panthers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 62.1%

FLA: 37.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.05

FLA: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	PIT	FLA
Season SV%	0.886	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	31	29	2	93.5%	3.42	0	1.42
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	23	18	5	78.3%	3.61	1	-1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PIT 5 - 2 FLA	PIT	PIT
2026-04-04	PIT 9 - 4 FLA	PIT	PIT
2025-10-23	FLA 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	FLA
2025-03-23	FLA 4 - 3 PIT	FLA	FLA
2025-01-03	FLA 3 - 2 PIT	FLA	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	1	1.33
1	FLA	13	0	0.44
2	PIT	14	0	1.39
2	FLA	16	0	1.20
3	PIT	11	0	0.89
3	FLA	26	0	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown