Boston Bruins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Boston Bruins (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 70.6%

BOS: 29.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.42

BOS: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Stat	PHI	BOS
Season SV%	0.910	0.882
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	19	18	1	94.7%	2.01	1	1.01
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	31	29	2	93.5%	2.63	3	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs BOS: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	BOS 5 - 1 PHI	BOS	BOS
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	0.44
1	BOS	6	0	0.38
2	PHI	15	1	0.97
2	BOS	14	0	0.72
3	PHI	11	1	0.72
3	BOS	12	1	0.92
4	PHI	4	1	0.50
4	BOS	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7