New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 3 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 39.5%

NJD: 60.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.72

NJD: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	MTL	NJD
Season SV%	0.904	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.64	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jacob Fowler	20	17	3	85.0%	3.77	4	0.77
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	18	18	0	100.0%	2.73	0	2.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • MTL at home vs NJD: 0-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	MTL 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-04-04	NJD 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NJD
2025-11-06	NJD 4 - 3 MTL	NJD	NJD
2025-02-08	MTL 0 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-25	MTL 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.84
1	NJD	15	3	1.87
2	MTL	7	0	0.54
2	NJD	11	0	0.80
3	MTL	19	0	1.36
3	NJD	9	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown