St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 65.5%

STL: 34.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.92

STL: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Stat	COL	STL
Season SV%	0.924	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.87

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	29	26	3	89.7%	4.24	2	1.24
STL	Joel Hofer	28	26	2	92.9%	3.06	5	1.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • COL at home vs STL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	13	0	0.66
1	STL	14	0	1.07
2	COL	15	2	0.90
2	STL	10	1	1.01
3	COL	20	3	1.49
3	STL	23	1	2.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown