St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-04-05 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 63.8%

STL: 36.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.84

STL: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • COL at home vs STL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	13	0	0.66
1	STL	14	0	1.07
2	COL	15	2	0.90
2	STL	10	1	1.01
3	COL	20	3	1.49
3	STL	23	1	2.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.8 - 2.7