Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-06 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 44.9%

TBL: 55.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.23

TBL: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • BUF at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	1	1.21
1	TBL	8	0	0.53
2	BUF	18	1	1.40
2	TBL	14	0	0.81
3	BUF	9	1	0.86
3	TBL	19	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2