Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-04-07 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 36.3%

VGK: 63.7%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.92

VGK: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	VAN	VGK
Season SV%	0.000	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	28	26	2	92.9%	4.11	2	2.11
VGK	Carter Hart	11	10	1	90.9%	1.66	1	0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • VAN at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VAN
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	5	0	0.24
1	VGK	19	1	1.78
2	VAN	9	1	0.76
2	VGK	17	0	1.49
3	VAN	9	0	0.66
3	VGK	11	1	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown