Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-04-08 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 47.7%

BUF: 52.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.85

BUF: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	NYR	BUF
Season SV%	0.910	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	27	22	5	81.5%	4.25	5	-0.75
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	20	17	3	85.0%	2.22	1	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYR at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	17	1	1.45
1	BUF	14	1	0.92
2	NYR	8	0	0.68
2	BUF	18	2	1.38
3	NYR	4	0	0.09
3	BUF	9	2	1.96

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown