Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 0 Columbus Blue Jackets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 53.1%

CBJ: 46.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

CBJ: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	BUF	CBJ
Season SV%	0.895	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	37	37	0	100.0%	3.70	2	3.70
CBJ	Jet Greaves	24	19	5	79.2%	2.36	3	-2.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	BUF
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	BUF
2025-04-10	CBJ 3 - 2 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-02-04	BUF 3 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	0	0.72
1	CBJ	15	1	0.97
2	BUF	8	1	0.56
2	CBJ	23	0	1.14
3	BUF	12	2	1.09
3	CBJ	19	1	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown