Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 47.9%

PHI: 52.1%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.20

PHI: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	DET	PHI
Season SV%	0.893	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	27	24	3	88.9%	2.48	1	-0.52
PHI	Dan Vladar	22	16	6	72.7%	1.98	1	-4.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	5	1	0.60
1	PHI	19	0	1.07
2	DET	13	0	0.73
2	PHI	9	1	0.71
3	DET	8	0	0.66
3	PHI	12	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown