Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 2 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 48.2%

PIT: 51.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 2.86

PIT: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	NJD	PIT
Season SV%	0.912	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.52	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jake Allen	30	25	5	83.3%	4.56	4	-0.44
PIT	Stuart Skinner	21	19	2	90.5%	1.99	1	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • NJD at home vs PIT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	16	0	0.95
1	PIT	21	1	1.54
2	NJD	9	1	0.67
2	PIT	11	0	0.88
3	NJD	7	0	0.37
3	PIT	13	3	2.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown