Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 73.4%

CGY: 26.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.79

CGY: 1.44

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	COL	CGY
Season SV%	0.924	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	29	28	1	96.6%	2.24	2	1.24
CGY	Dustin Wolf	41	38	3	92.7%	5.94	9	2.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • COL at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	2	1.29
1	CGY	13	0	0.63
2	COL	24	3	2.08
2	CGY	17	1	0.79
3	COL	16	4	2.57
3	CGY	17	1	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.2

Score Breakdown