Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-04-09 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

COL: 78.6%

CGY: 21.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.82

CGY: 1.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • COL at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	CGY 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-09	COL 3 - 1 CGY	COL	COL
2026-03-30	COL 9 - 2 CGY	COL	COL
2025-03-31	COL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	COL
2025-03-14	CGY 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	2	1.29
1	CGY	13	0	0.63
2	COL	24	3	2.08
2	CGY	17	1	0.79
3	COL	16	4	2.57
3	CGY	17	1	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.8 - 1.6