Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 49.0%

TBL: 51.0%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.03

TBL: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	BOS	TBL
Season SV%	0.903	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	24	22	2	91.7%	2.69	2	0.69
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	19	1	95.0%	2.31	1	1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • BOS at home vs TBL: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	11	1	0.84
1	TBL	7	1	0.95
2	BOS	23	0	0.94
2	TBL	9	0	0.56
3	BOS	9	0	0.53
3	TBL	13	1	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown