Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 0 - 3 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 42.1%

OTT: 57.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.04

OTT: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	NYI	OTT
Season SV%	0.910	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	16	13	3	81.2%	2.18	2	-0.82
OTT	Linus Ullmark	23	23	0	100.0%	2.89	3	2.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs OTT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	NYI
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	1	1.00
1	OTT	6	0	0.20
2	NYI	14	0	0.74
2	OTT	11	0	0.46
3	NYI	15	2	1.15
3	OTT	10	2	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown