Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 0 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 47.4%

EDM: 52.6%

Expected Goals

LAK: 2.94

EDM: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

Stat	LAK	EDM
Season SV%	0.901	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.70	3.28

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Anton Forsberg	27	27	0	100.0%	2.25	0	2.25
EDM	Connor Ingram	21	20	1	95.2%	2.33	1	1.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • LAK at home vs EDM: 9-13

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	LAK 1 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM
2026-04-11	LAK 1 - 0 EDM	LAK	EDM
2026-02-26	LAK 1 - 8 EDM	EDM	LAK
2026-01-10	EDM 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	EDM
2025-05-01	EDM 6 - 4 LAK	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	11	0	0.76
1	EDM	14	0	0.69
2	LAK	11	0	0.53
2	EDM	10	0	0.66
3	LAK	11	1	1.05
3	EDM	18	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown