New York Rangers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 0 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 61.7%

NYR: 38.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.87

NYR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	DAL	NYR
Season SV%	0.907	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	22	22	0	100.0%	2.20	0	2.20
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	19	17	2	89.5%	3.56	6	1.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DAL 2 - 0 NYR	DAL	DAL
2025-12-02	NYR 3 - 2 DAL	NYR	DAL
2025-01-07	NYR 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-20	DAL 1 - 3 NYR	NYR	DAL
2024-02-20	NYR 3 - 1 DAL	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	5	1	0.24
1	NYR	9	0	0.44
2	DAL	12	0	0.84
2	NYR	15	0	0.92
3	DAL	16	5	2.49
3	NYR	14	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown