Carolina Hurricanes at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 51.1%

CAR: 48.9%

Expected Goals

UTA: 2.95

CAR: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	UTA	CAR
Season SV%	0.895	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	25	4	86.2%	5.49	7	1.49
CAR	Frederik Andersen	27	26	1	96.3%	3.60	1	2.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs CAR: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	UTA 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	UTA
2026-01-29	CAR 5 - 4 UTA	CAR	CAR
2025-02-08	CAR 7 - 3 UTA	CAR	CAR
2024-11-13	UTA 4 - 1 CAR	UTA	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	11	1	0.72
1	CAR	19	3	1.75
2	UTA	14	0	1.11
2	CAR	6	0	0.26
3	UTA	23	0	1.77
3	CAR	22	4	3.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown