Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 53.0%

FLA: 47.0%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.99

FLA: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	TOR
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	FLA
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.59
1	FLA	15	0	0.96
2	TOR	10	1	1.04
2	FLA	13	0	0.68
3	TOR	16	1	1.30
3	FLA	15	4	2.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2