Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 6 Florida Panthers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 48.6%

FLA: 51.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.90

FLA: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	TOR	FLA
Season SV%	0.914	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	19	6	76.0%	4.05	4	-1.95
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	19	17	2	89.5%	2.93	2	0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 79% • TOR at home vs FLA: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	TOR 2 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA
2026-02-26	FLA 5 - 1 TOR	FLA	FLA
2026-01-06	TOR 4 - 1 FLA	TOR	TOR
2025-12-02	FLA 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	FLA
2025-05-18	TOR 1 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	0	0.59
1	FLA	15	0	0.96
2	TOR	10	1	1.04
2	FLA	13	0	0.68
3	TOR	16	1	1.30
3	FLA	15	4	2.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown