Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 60.7%

VGK: 39.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.35

VGK: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	COL	VGK
Season SV%	0.924	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	29	26	3	89.7%	3.91	2	0.91
VGK	Carter Hart	32	30	2	93.8%	3.64	1	1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • COL at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	24	1	1.76
1	VGK	12	1	0.86
2	COL	14	0	0.78
2	VGK	21	0	1.23
3	COL	14	0	0.98
3	VGK	19	1	1.73
4	COL	1	0	0.12
4	VGK	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8