Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 55.1%

VGK: 44.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.55

VGK: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 46% • COL at home vs VGK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-26	VGK 2 - 1 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-24	VGK 5 - 3 COL	VGK	COL
2026-05-22	COL 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-05-20	COL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	COL
2026-04-11	COL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	24	1	1.76
1	VGK	12	1	0.86
2	COL	14	0	0.78
2	VGK	21	0	1.23
3	COL	14	0	0.98
3	VGK	19	1	1.73
4	COL	1	0	0.12
4	VGK	1	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9