Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-04-11 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 57.0%

VAN: 43.0%

Expected Goals

SJS: 4.24

VAN: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	SJS	VAN
Season SV%	0.896	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	46	41	5	89.1%	5.46	5	0.46
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	36	32	4	88.9%	3.71	1	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • SJS at home vs VAN: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	SJS 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	SJS
2026-01-27	VAN 2 - 5 SJS	SJS	VAN
2025-12-27	VAN 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	VAN
2025-11-28	SJS 3 - 2 VAN	SJS	VAN
2025-04-14	VAN 2 - 1 SJS	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	14	0	0.93
1	VAN	13	0	0.62
2	SJS	13	0	0.59
2	VAN	17	1	1.06
3	SJS	13	0	0.80
3	VAN	19	2	1.55
4	SJS	2	0	0.21
4	VAN	4	0	0.26
5	SJS	6	1	1.18
5	VAN	6	2	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.7

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 4 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 4.2 - 3.5