Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-04-12 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

WSH: 55.6%

PIT: 44.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.35

PIT: 2.31

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • WSH at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	0.82
1	PIT	20	0	1.35
2	WSH	19	0	1.19
2	PIT	18	0	1.37
3	WSH	3	0	0.13
3	PIT	5	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.3