Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-12 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 56.5%

MTL: 43.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.28

MTL: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	NYI	MTL
Season SV%	0.910	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	22	18	4	81.8%	3.62	3	-0.38
MTL	Jacob Fowler	33	32	1	97.0%	3.90	2	2.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	NYI 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	NYI
2026-03-21	MTL 7 - 3 NYI	MTL	MTL
2026-02-26	MTL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	MTL
2025-03-20	NYI 4 - 3 MTL	NYI	NYI
2024-12-03	MTL 2 - 1 NYI	MTL	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	0	0.79
1	MTL	16	0	1.23
2	NYI	9	1	0.85
2	MTL	13	1	1.29
3	NYI	27	1	2.26
3	MTL	7	2	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown