Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2026-04-12 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 60.9%
MTL: 39.1%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.22
MTL: 2.73
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 34%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | NYI | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.835 | — |
| GAA | 2.55 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs MTL: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | NYI 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | NYI |
| 2026-03-21 | MTL 7 - 3 NYI | MTL | MTL |
| 2026-02-26 | MTL 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | MTL |
| 2025-03-20 | NYI 4 - 3 MTL | NYI | MTL |
| 2024-12-03 | MTL 2 - 1 NYI | MTL | NYI |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.