Utah Hockey Club at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-04-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 47.1%

UTA: 52.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.88

UTA: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	CGY	UTA
Season SV%	0.901	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	28	1	96.6%	2.36	0	1.36
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	23	19	4	82.6%	2.77	2	-1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CGY at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	CGY 4 - 1 UTA	CGY	UTA
2025-12-06	CGY 2 - 0 UTA	CGY	CGY
2025-10-15	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-04-01	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-01-02	CGY 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	1	1.57
1	UTA	7	0	0.51
2	CGY	5	0	0.29
2	UTA	19	0	0.99
3	CGY	8	1	0.91
3	UTA	21	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown