Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 39.6%

CAR: 60.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.25

CAR: 3.71

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	PHI	CAR
Season SV%	0.910	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	29	27	2	93.1%	2.62	0	0.62
CAR	Brandon Bussi	27	24	3	88.9%	5.03	8	2.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • PHI at home vs CAR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	1.16
1	CAR	9	0	0.71
2	PHI	7	3	1.05
2	CAR	12	0	0.65
3	PHI	11	3	1.60
3	CAR	19	0	0.60
4	PHI	2	1	0.29
4	CAR	5	0	0.35
5	PHI	4	1	0.94
5	CAR	4	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.2 - 3.7