Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-04-13 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 6 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 46.1%

MIN: 53.9%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.00

MIN: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	STL	MIN
Season SV%	0.901	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	31	28	3	90.3%	3.34	2	0.34
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	22	16	6	72.7%	3.79	5	-2.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • STL at home vs MIN: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	STL 6 - 3 MIN	STL	MIN
2026-03-01	MIN 1 - 3 STL	STL	MIN
2025-10-09	STL 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-03-15	MIN 1 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2025-01-07	MIN 6 - 4 STL	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	2	1.05
1	MIN	20	0	1.58
2	STL	9	1	1.11
2	MIN	11	2	1.18
3	STL	13	2	1.63
3	MIN	14	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown