Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-04-14 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 58.0%

CAR: 42.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.84

CAR: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	NYI	CAR
Season SV%	0.909	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	21	19	2	90.5%	2.76	2	0.76
CAR	Brandon Bussi	30	29	1	96.7%	2.54	1	1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • NYI at home vs CAR: 4-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	NYI 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	NYI
2026-04-04	CAR 4 - 3 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-10-30	CAR 6 - 2 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-03-30	CAR 6 - 4 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-01-25	NYI 3 - 2 CAR	NYI	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.47
1	CAR	13	1	1.21
2	NYI	10	1	1.17
2	CAR	14	0	0.82
3	NYI	19	0	0.90
3	CAR	9	1	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown