Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-14 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 59.0%

MTL: 41.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.17

MTL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	PHI	MTL
Season SV%	0.868	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	29	27	2	93.1%	3.00	4	1.00
MTL	Jakub Dobes	25	21	4	84.0%	2.56	3	-1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs MTL: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	2	1.29
1	MTL	17	1	0.86
2	PHI	14	0	0.70
2	MTL	13	3	1.41
3	PHI	5	1	0.58
3	MTL	12	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown