Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-04-15 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 83.5%

TOR: 16.5%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.90

TOR: 1.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

J. Reimer

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Stat	OTT	TOR
Season SV%	—	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.90

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	J. Reimer	20	19	1	95.0%	1.58	0	0.58
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	38	35	3	92.1%	5.02	4	2.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • OTT at home vs TOR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	OTT 3 - 1 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-03-21	OTT 5 - 2 TOR	OTT	OTT
2026-02-28	TOR 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-12-27	TOR 7 - 5 OTT	TOR	OTT
2025-05-01	OTT 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	24	2	1.89
1	TOR	9	0	0.20
2	OTT	17	0	0.94
2	TOR	11	0	0.61
3	OTT	16	2	2.19
3	TOR	13	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 83.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown