San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-04-16 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 6 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 64.5%

SJS: 35.5%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.37

SJS: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	WPG	SJS
Season SV%	0.880	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.49	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	33	27	6	81.8%	4.09	5	-1.91
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	26	25	1	96.2%	3.07	1	2.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WPG at home vs SJS: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	WPG 1 - 6 SJS	SJS	WPG
2026-03-01	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-11-07	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-02-24	WPG 2 - 1 SJS	WPG	WPG
2024-12-17	SJS 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	20	0	1.15
1	SJS	12	0	0.80
2	WPG	16	0	0.91
2	SJS	20	2	1.97
3	WPG	13	1	1.01
3	SJS	15	3	1.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown