Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-19 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

BUF: 59.3%

BOS: 40.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.25

BOS: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	21	1	1.27
1	BOS	17	1	1.38
2	BUF	16	0	0.74
2	BOS	5	0	0.34
3	BUF	19	2	2.52
3	BOS	11	1	0.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8