Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-21 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 59.6%

BOS: 40.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.05

BOS: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.43
1	BOS	18	1	1.59
2	BUF	15	0	1.11
2	BOS	15	1	1.10
3	BUF	27	1	2.45
3	BOS	11	2	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8