Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-21 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 61.3%

BOS: 38.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.53

BOS: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	BUF	BOS
Season SV%	0.903	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	27	23	4	85.2%	3.85	4	-0.15
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	35	33	2	94.3%	3.99	1	1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	0.43
1	BOS	18	1	1.59
2	BUF	15	0	1.11
2	BOS	15	1	1.10
3	BUF	27	1	2.45
3	BOS	11	2	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown