Buffalo Sabres at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-04-23 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 1 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

BOS: 45.1%

BUF: 54.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.78

BUF: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BOS at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	0	1.10
1	BUF	20	0	1.14
2	BOS	7	1	0.54
2	BUF	10	0	0.81
3	BOS	16	0	1.18
3	BUF	13	1	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 1 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2