Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 64.1%

BOS: 35.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 4.05

BOS: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 53%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	8	0	0.55
1	BOS	15	0	1.08
2	BUF	18	0	1.05
2	BOS	15	1	1.30
3	BUF	17	0	1.03
3	BOS	11	0	0.55
4	BUF	9	0	0.35
4	BOS	5	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 4.0 - 2.8