Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-04-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 64.2%

BOS: 35.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.88

BOS: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	BUF	BOS
Season SV%	0.906	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	29	27	2	93.1%	3.35	1	1.35
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	25	1	96.2%	3.04	0	2.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	8	0	0.55
1	BOS	15	0	1.08
2	BUF	18	0	1.05
2	BOS	15	1	1.30
3	BUF	18	0	1.10
3	BOS	11	0	0.55
4	BUF	9	0	0.35
4	BOS	5	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 2 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9