Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-19 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 53.7%

MTL: 46.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.18

MTL: 3.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 54%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	0.92
1	MTL	6	0	0.56
2	TBL	13	0	0.65
2	MTL	11	0	1.03
3	TBL	12	0	0.50
3	MTL	12	2	1.17
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 4.0