Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-19 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (69% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 68.6%

MTL: 31.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.91

MTL: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	TBL	MTL
Season SV%	0.913	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	19	15	4	78.9%	3.03	2	-0.97
MTL	Jakub Dobes	23	20	3	87.0%	2.07	1	-0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	1	0.92
1	MTL	6	0	0.56
2	TBL	13	0	0.65
2	MTL	11	0	1.03
3	TBL	12	0	0.50
3	MTL	12	2	1.17
4	TBL	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 2.9 - 2.7