Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-21 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 63.7%

MTL: 36.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.46

MTL: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	TBL	MTL
Season SV%	0.913	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	27	25	2	92.6%	2.67	0	0.67
MTL	Jakub Dobes	34	31	3	91.2%	2.87	2	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs MTL: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.65
1	MTL	17	0	1.35
2	TBL	14	1	0.90
2	MTL	15	0	0.88
3	TBL	13	1	0.71
3	MTL	9	0	0.44
4	TBL	12	0	0.61
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8