Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-21 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 61.6%

MTL: 38.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.39

MTL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.65
1	MTL	17	0	1.35
2	TBL	14	1	0.90
2	MTL	15	0	0.88
3	TBL	13	1	0.71
3	MTL	9	0	0.44
4	TBL	12	0	0.61
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8