Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-24 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 40.5%

TBL: 59.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.04

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	MTL	TBL
Season SV%	0.889	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	17	15	2	88.2%	2.62	2	0.62
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	29	26	3	89.7%	3.04	3	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • MTL at home vs TBL: 4-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	2	1.39
1	TBL	12	1	1.18
2	MTL	13	1	1.14
2	TBL	11	1	0.72
3	MTL	11	0	0.49
3	TBL	7	0	0.72
4	MTL	1	0	0.03
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2