Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-24 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 46.2%

TBL: 53.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.25

TBL: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	2	1.39
1	TBL	12	1	1.18
2	MTL	13	1	1.14
2	TBL	11	1	0.72
3	MTL	11	0	0.49
3	TBL	7	0	0.72
4	MTL	1	0	0.03
4	TBL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1