Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 52.5%

TBL: 47.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.29

TBL: 2.28

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	MTL	TBL
Season SV%	0.889	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	20	17	3	85.0%	4.00	6	1.00
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	18	16	2	88.9%	3.23	5	1.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	3	1.60
1	TBL	14	0	1.09
2	MTL	9	2	1.10
2	TBL	18	4	1.87
3	MTL	9	0	0.53
3	TBL	11	2	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown