Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-04-26 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 56.0%

TBL: 44.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.37

TBL: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • MTL at home vs TBL: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	3	1.60
1	TBL	14	0	1.09
2	MTL	9	2	1.10
2	TBL	18	4	1.87
3	MTL	9	0	0.53
3	TBL	11	2	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 2.5