Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-29 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 65.3%

MTL: 34.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.62

MTL: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	TBL	MTL
Season SV%	0.913	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	87.5%	2.40	3	-0.60
MTL	Jakub Dobes	40	38	2	95.0%	2.81	1	0.81

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • TBL at home vs MTL: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	1	0.70
1	MTL	9	1	0.95
2	TBL	16	0	1.15
2	MTL	16	2	1.16
3	TBL	20	0	0.96
3	MTL	8	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown