Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-04-29 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 65.3%

MTL: 34.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.97

MTL: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	1	0.70
1	MTL	9	1	0.95
2	TBL	16	0	1.15
2	MTL	16	2	1.16
3	TBL	20	0	0.96
3	MTL	8	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 2.6