Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-04-20 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 60.6%

OTT: 39.4%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.30

OTT: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	CAR	OTT
Season SV%	0.865	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	39	37	2	94.9%	4.52	5	2.52
OTT	Linus Ullmark	46	43	3	93.5%	5.12	3	2.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 77% • CAR at home vs OTT: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	17	1	1.38
1	OTT	21	0	0.84
2	CAR	27	0	1.38
2	OTT	9	0	0.63
3	CAR	13	1	0.94
3	OTT	16	0	1.03
4	CAR	15	0	0.57
4	OTT	13	3	1.42
5	CAR	11	1	0.85
5	OTT	11	2	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8