Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-18 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 58.4%

PHI: 41.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.34

PHI: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	PIT	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	20	17	3	85.0%	3.01	2	0.01
PHI	Dan Vladar	18	16	2	88.9%	1.49	1	-0.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	11	0	0.53
1	PHI	14	0	0.81
2	PIT	9	0	0.20
2	PHI	12	1	0.82
3	PIT	9	1	0.76
3	PHI	12	1	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown