Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-18 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.2%

PHI: 46.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.33

PHI: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	11	0	0.53
1	PHI	14	0	0.81
2	PIT	8	0	0.19
2	PHI	12	1	0.82
3	PIT	9	1	0.76
3	PHI	12	1	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2