Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2026-04-18 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 54.3%
PHI: 45.7%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.27
PHI: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 59%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | PIT | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.901 | 0.840 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | PHI | ||
| 2026-04-29 | PHI 1 - 0 PIT | PHI | PHI |
| 2026-04-27 | PIT 3 - 2 PHI | PIT | PIT |
| 2026-04-25 | PHI 2 - 4 PIT | PIT | PIT |
| 2026-04-22 | PHI 5 - 2 PIT | PHI | PHI |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9
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