Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-04-20 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

PIT: 42.4%

PHI: 57.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.95

PHI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.46
1	PHI	6	0	0.24
2	PIT	19	0	0.61
2	PHI	15	1	0.65
3	PIT	19	0	1.18
3	PHI	9	2	1.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1