Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-22 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

PHI: 55.7%

PIT: 44.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.61

PIT: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs PIT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	0	0.71
1	PIT	15	0	0.80
2	PHI	18	3	1.43
2	PIT	18	0	0.61
3	PHI	7	2	1.62
3	PIT	19	0	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3