Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-22 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 46.4%

PIT: 53.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 4.11

PIT: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	PHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	30	28	2	93.3%	2.75	0	0.75
PIT	Stuart Skinner	29	24	5	82.8%	3.75	5	-1.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • PHI at home vs PIT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	0	0.71
1	PIT	15	0	0.80
2	PHI	18	3	1.43
2	PIT	18	0	0.61
3	PHI	7	2	1.62
3	PIT	19	0	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown