Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-25 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 51.8%

PIT: 48.2%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.94

PIT: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	PHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	22	18	4	81.8%	2.94	2	-1.06
PIT	Arturs Silovs	30	28	2	93.3%	2.93	3	0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.36
1	PIT	13	1	0.77
2	PHI	16	3	1.62
2	PIT	16	0	0.68
3	PHI	16	0	0.95
3	PIT	14	1	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown