Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-04-25 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 56.2%

PIT: 43.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.68

PIT: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs PIT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.36
1	PIT	12	1	0.71
2	PHI	16	3	1.62
2	PIT	16	0	0.68
3	PHI	16	0	0.95
3	PIT	14	1	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5